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Manufacturing Overcapacity Constrains Industrial Robot Market Growth in China
制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩抑制中國工業(yè)機器人市場增長

The Chinese market for industrial robots reached an estimated $1.3 billion in 2015. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20 percent, reaching $3.3 billion in 2020,according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. China accounted for 13 percent of global industrial robot sales revenue in 2015, and is expected to comprise 25 percent in 2020.

全球領先的市場研究公司IHS統(tǒng)計表明，2015年中國工業(yè)機器人市場規(guī)模達13億美元，而且將保持20%的年復合增長率，到2020年達33億美元。2015年，中國的工業(yè)機器人銷售收入占全球13%，預計這一數(shù)字到2020年將達25%。

“The much-needed regeneration of the manufacturing industry is a multi-billion dollar opportunity for the industrial robot market,” said Mark Watson, senior manager, manufacturing technology, IHS Technology. “Labor-intensive industries are increasingly automating production, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region where labor costs have risen quickly. Labor shortages have led to increasing wages, shortening the potential return on investment of industrial robots for many end-users.”

“制造業(yè)迫切的復蘇有望為工業(yè)機器人市場帶來數(shù)十億美元的發(fā)展機遇，”IHS制造科技部高級經(jīng)理Mark Watson表示。“勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)越來越傾向于自動化生產(chǎn)，尤其是在勞動力成本迅速攀升的亞太地區(qū)。勞動力短缺導致工資上漲，進而減少了很多終端用戶的潛在投資收益。”

As capacity utilization begins to increase in 2018, industrial robot adoption will accelerate, as end-users start to optimize the technology in their factories and prices fall. Increasing labor costs, low commodity prices, and competition from other low-cost manufacturing regions, will promote further adoption of industrial robots. The effect of China’s 13th strategic plan is expected to positively impact growth in beginning in 2018, providing direct access to credit and tax relief, which will increase investment.

隨著產(chǎn)能利用率的提升，終端用戶對工廠的技術優(yōu)化以及價格降低，到2018年，工業(yè)機器人的應用率將大大加速。而伴隨逐漸增加的勞動力成本、低廉的商品價格，和與其他低制造成本地區(qū)之間的激烈競爭，工業(yè)機器人的應用將進一步擴大。在十三五規(guī)劃下，由于獲得直接信貸和稅收減免，企業(yè)能加大機器人投資，從而有利于工業(yè)機器人市場的增長。

However, according to the latest research from the IHS Industrial Robots Intelligence Service, manufacturing overcapacity in many industries -- particularly heavy industries -- has the potential to limit robot market growth, particularly considering the poor short-term outlook of the Chinese economy. Local manufacturers are unlikely to spend considerable sums of money to install industrial robots, in light of excess capacity and a reduced need for productivity improvements. The alternative is to employ temporary workers, which is a flexible and a less capital-intensive process for many local manufacturers. However, labor shortages will continue in China, as the economy continues its shift to a service-based model.

然而，IHS工業(yè)機器人情報服務部的最新研究顯示，中國短期經(jīng)濟前景不明，很多行業(yè)都出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能過剩的情況，尤以重工業(yè)為甚，這將限制工業(yè)機器人市場增長。在這種情況下，當?shù)刂圃焐烫岣呱a(chǎn)率的需求不大，因此不太可能投入大量資金安裝工業(yè)機器人。相反，他們更愿意雇傭臨時工人，因為這對他們來說更靈活、資本密集程度更低。但隨著中國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)向服務型經(jīng)濟轉變，勞動力短缺的問題將越來越明顯。

“The need to improve flexibility and identify production efficiencies underpins industrial robot investment,” Watson said. “By installing robots that easily adjust to production levels and manufacturing processes, companies can save on labor costs and rely less on temporary unskilled workers.”

“制造商對生產(chǎn)靈活性和明確的生產(chǎn)效率的需求，支撐著對工業(yè)機器人的投資，”Watson說道。“采用機器人后，企業(yè)可以輕松地調整生產(chǎn)水平和制造流程，還可以節(jié)省人力成本，降低對臨時工的依賴。”

Robot suppliers headquartered outside of China accounted for over 80 percent of 2015 industrial robot sales in China. These companies maintain a dominant presence in the market, because they have established relationships with leading end users and provide high-quality hardware, software and support services.

2015年，外資品牌占據(jù)了中國工業(yè)機器人銷量總額的80%以上。這些企業(yè)在中國的機器人市場占據(jù)著主導地位，因為他們已經(jīng)與國內主要的終端用戶建立了合作關系，提供高質量的軟硬件及支持服務。

“Industrial robot market leaders in China invest substantially in research and development, facilitating the penetration of collaborative robots, deep machine learning, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies, to ensure they lead the future of the industry,” Watson said. “As a result, local Chinese suppliers face a considerable challenge in securing market share.”

“中國工業(yè)機器人領導企業(yè)在研發(fā)上投入大量資金，用于研制擁有協(xié)作能力、深度學習能力的產(chǎn)品，提高其人工智能水平以及開發(fā)其他新興技術，從而確保他們在行業(yè)競爭中占據(jù)有利位置，”Watson表示。“因此，中國本地供應商面臨激烈的市場份額爭奪戰(zhàn)。”